Secrets of Sand Hill Road: Venture Capital and How to Get It, by Scott Kupor 2019 (a16z), excerpts, In a strange way, sometimes familiarity can breed contemptand conversely, the distance from the problem that comes from having a completely different professional background might actually make one a better founder. There were 272 automobile companies in 1909. In a counterfactual world, Google went down in flames quite easily because it never hit upon the advertising innovations that saved it, no matter how much you liked PageRank, and anything else is hindsight bias. Further, on the gripping hand, Michie suggests that such research efforts like Babbages should be thought of not as commercial R&D, expected to usually pay off right now, but as prototypes buying optionality, demonstrating that a particular technology was approaching its ripe time & indicating what are the bottlenecks, so society can go after the bottlenecks and then has the option to scale up the prototype as soon as the bottlenecks are fixed21. So for the most part, traders clone popular strategies, but with certain probabilities, theyll randomly explore rarer apparently-unsuccessful strategies. Early PC history is rife with examples of the prescient failing. Kuchuk, F.J., and Ayestaran, L.: Analysis of Simultaneously Measured Pressure and Sandface Flow Rate in Transient Well Testing, paper SPE 12177, prepared for presentation at the 1983 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, 58 October, San Francisco. Whats the benefit of being the 100,000th person working on something? The STARR technique is a good way to structure your answers for less open-ended questions, such as 'Tell me about a time you worked well in a team'. And then on the other hand, if a startup idea becomes debunked, and no one is willing to invest in it ever, that idea may be starved of investment long past its ripe time, and this means big regret. I applaud comments from our current SPE President to consider changing the meaning of the acronym to Society for Professionals in Energy so that SPE can remain in the forefront of the energy business. You however know what ignorance can trigger and how to deal with ignorance and purpose. I had thought, at first, that he was as unique as the phoenix of rhetorical praise; after spending a little time with him, I felt I could recognize his voice, or his habits, in the texts of various literatures and various agesIf I am not mistaken, the heterogeneous pieces I have listed resemble Kafka; if I am not mistaken, not all of them resemble each other. Before that, everyone relied strictly on finding a straight line on a Horner plot3 (Fig. Within industrial research organizationsand, implicitly, within academic onesHrlein called for special institutional arrangements to encourage appropriate interactions between chemistry and biomedicine. If an hour of reflection seems like too much, try 10 minutes. We ultimately chose to abandon our word choice, but the principle remains today: You have to be partly delusional to start a company given the prospects of success and the need to keep pushing forward in the wake of the constant stream of doubters. Ehlig-Economides, C.A. My partner Chris Dixon describes our job as VCs as investing in good ideas that look like bad ideas. o Activity Report: A day without Technology. Can you ask researchers if the time is ripe? Conclusion. One guy will do most of the work. They describe Heinrich Hrleins drug development programs & Thomas Edisons electrical programs as being strategically aimed at opportunities called reverse salients, taking necessary steps to solve bottlenecks which hold back the practical application of progress in areas. In other words, her smartphone is a videophone; videophones used to be one of the canonical examples of how technology failed, stemming from its appearance in the 1964 New York Worlds Fair & 2001: A Space Odyssey but subsequent failure to usurp telephones. Bloomberg News. Michael Wolfe offers some examples of this: How about Netflix? 4.). As I waited somewhat nervously to give my first technical presentation in 1975, several papers were introduced with an anecdote about the speakers experiences 25 years before. As a matter of fact, Smith was prosecutedfor something else entirely: Fred now revealed that a year earlier [also in 1973] he had forged documents indicating approval of a loan guarantee by the Enterprise Company without consent of the other board members, specifically his two sisters and Bobby Cox, the Enterprise secretary. While each time a failed option is tried, it may seem irrational (how many times must VR fail before people finally give up on it), it was still rational in the big picture to give it a try, as this collective strategy collectively minimizes regret & maximizes collective total long-term returnsas long as failed options arent tried too often. This includes timers, clocks and etc. My best timing was meeting my husband of nearly 30 years, Michael Economides. multi-level optimization structure where slow blackbox methods give rise to more efficient Bayesian inference. Though, the right moment cannot be known exactly in advance, so attempts to forecast will typically be off by years or worse. Today, I am not really a proponent of type-curve matching per se, but rather with using the derivative response to recognize flow regimes.13 We now can use data processing originally designed for convolution or deconvolution of downhole pressure and flow-rate data for analysis of production data.14 This approach is particularly effective in wells with permanent gauges. (You too can achieve overnight success in just a few decades of hard work) A 2013 interview with Eric Jackson looks back on smartphone adoption rates: Q: Whats your take on how theyre [Apple] handling their expansion into China, India, and other emerging markets?, A: Its depressing how slow things are moving on that front. The people listed in her article have all subscribed to the rigorous analysis that was necessary, and they, as she has, have left their mark in the improved understanding we now often take for granted. Well strip out all of the ad-supported news and portal features so you wont be distracted from using the free search stuff. Perhaps had Kelleher known intimately of all the challenges of entering the airline business, he would have run screaming from the challenge versus deciding to take on the full set of risks. Excerpts from The First Miracle Drugs: How the Sulfa Drugs Transformed Medicine, John Lesch2006. 2. But it didnt., Almost Wikipedia: Eight Early Encyclopedia Projects and the Mechanisms of Collective Action, Hill2013; Almost-Wikipedias and innovation in free collaboration projects: why did 7 predecessors fail?., Finding out these tidbits is one reason I enjoyed reading Founders at Work: Stories of Startups Early Days (ed Livingston2009; Introduction), because the challenges are not always what you think they are. So you dont know the timing well enough to reliably launch. He had to intervene where necessary to minimize friction between chemists and medical researchers, an especially important task for chemotherapy as a composite entity. Let me warn you, important problem must be phrased carefully. This balances overall exploitation & exploration to progress as fast as possible, showing the usefulness of technological forecasting on a global level despite its uselessness to individuals. But you know what? The timeliness of your word is surely on point.". This explores all options initially but gradually homes in on the most profitable option to exploit most of the time, while still occasionally exploring all the other options once in a while, just in case; strictly speaking Thompson sampling will never ban an option permanently, the probability of selecting an option merely becomes vanishingly rare. I for one will admit it, when I wake up the first thing I do is reach for my smartphone. This, arguably, was the case for Michies own research. The fact is that each writer creates his precursors. In other words, we wanted them to be momentary (i.e. The Wanderer And His Shadow, In the Air: Who says big ideas are rare?, paid a pittance ~2000 to acquihire Netflix, Almost Wikipedia: Eight Early Encyclopedia Projects and the Mechanisms of Collective Action, Almost-Wikipedias and innovation in free collaboration projects: why did 7 predecessors fail?, An Oral History of Nintendos Power Glove, All the money in the world couldnt make Kinect happen: For a moment a decade ago, the game industry looked like a very different place, Forecasting Transformative AI: An Expert Survey, Ed Boyden on Minding your Brain (Ep. Learning can occur in many forms and situations. And will she walk through walls when the going gets toughwhich it inevitably will in nearly all startupsand simply refuse to even consider quitting? I think we see this a lot. Once the initial shock of the situation wore off, you'd start getting ready for work. (How do you force all relevant companies to sell tradable stakes? Previously, Ms. Ehlig-Economides has taught at Texas A&M University, Stanford University and the University of Alaska, Fairbanks. We can think of the prototypes as 23 different attempts to describe the inevitable generic lightbulb. Come and give me a word about those days. And he himself gave the answer for them: Every day is a good day.. 1. A simple, efficient, and low-cost method is proposed to reduce the timing jitter in passively Q-switched microchip lasers by self-injection seeding. The productivity boost expected from electric dynamos was slow to materialise, The evolution of large technological systems, #326, Part II. In the case of chemotherapy, these things could be effected only by the medical researcher and the chemist, each working on his own domain, and cooperatively. X Research source. After 7 of my 20 years with Schlumberger, I left transient-test analysis for several other pursuits, and as before, my timing continued to be great. This bears a resemblance to startup rates over time: an initial burst of enthusiasm for a new option, when it still has high prior probability of being the most profitable option at the moment, triggers a bunch of startups selecting that option, but then when they fail, the posterior probability drops substantially; however, even if something now looks like a bad idea, there will still be people every once in a while who insist on trying again anyway, and, because the probability is not 0, once in a while they succeed wildly and everyone is astonished that so, X is a thing now!, In DARPAs research funding and VC, they often arent looking for a plan which looks good on average to everyone, or which no one can find any particular problem with, but something closer to a plan which at least one person thinks could be awesome for some reason. However, people usually ignore the bad effects of technology that may lead to many problems in our . Whatsoever thy hand findeth to do, do it with thy might; for there is no work, nor device, nor knowledge, nor wisdom, in the grave, whither thou goest. Jr.: Drawdown Behavior of a Well With Storage and Skin Effect Communicating With Layers of Different Radii and Other Characteristics, paper SPE 7453 presented at the 1978 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, October 13, Houston. After solving a problem, humanity imagines that it finds in analogous solutions the key to all problems. One of the most notorious tech business failures of the 1990s was the Iridium satellite constellation, but that was brought down by bizarrely self-sabotaging decisions on the part of Motorola, and when Motorola was finally removed from the equation, Iridium found its market, and 2017 saw the launch of the second Iridium satellite constellation, Iridium NEXT, with competition from other since-launched satellite constellations, including SpaceXs own nascent Starlink (aiming at global broadband Internet) which launched no less than 60 satellites in May2019. And so, we see, in our world around half such attempts fail completely, and 5% or so go to the moon. First of all, you'd wake up late because your smartphone alarm no longer exists. Why did we wait so long for the bicycle?). However, technology affects ones thinking capacity and development of ideas. Imagine this: You wake up one day in a world without technology - all the computers on the planet just disappeared. That old failed idea might be ready for prime time. The possibility of broadcasting radio waves across the Atlantic was convincingly excluded by theoretical analysis. Suppose the home robotic growth were concentrated in a single private company which exploded into the billions of annual revenue and took away the market share of all the others, forcing them to go bankrupt or merge or shrink. Although, I have used technology in my classroom before, now I. It wont have cut and paste. . (Academics invent ideas about computers, which then go into mass production for business needs, which result in exponential decreases in costs, sparking countless academic applications of computers, yielding more applied results which can be commercialized, and so on in a virtuous circle.) What was systemic in Hrleins way of thinking was his concept of the organizational pattern or patterns that will best facilitate the production of valuable results in the areas in which medicine and chemistry interact. Something happened that made the world different. Be still. All major success stories overshadow their long list of predecessors who did the same thing, but got unlucky. If you arent struck by a sense of dj vu or pity when you read this book, compare the claims by people at the Media Lab with contemporaryor laterworks like Clifford Stolls Silicon Snake Oil, and youll see how right they were. It is now appreciated that of the factors needed to make the stored-program digital computer a technological reality only one was missing: the means to construct fast switching elements. Example: in retrospect, we know everyone wanted computers, OSes, social networksbut the history of them is strewn with flaming rubble. Our respected leader admitted his culpability to the Federal Express board of directors and to the investors and lenders we were counting on to support the second round of the private placement financing. Timing, we believe, is an art. PayPals major challenge, for example, was not finding a market like eBay power sellers, but coping with fraud as they scaled, which apparently was the undoing of any number of rivals., Personally, I was still using Dogpile until at least 2000.. Just knowing that single trajectory of Moores, and none other, we would have educated differently, invested differently, prepared more wisely to grasp the amazing powers it would sprout. (One wonders if a 20-year forecast might be driven by anthropics: in an exponentially-growing field, most researchers will be present in the final generation, and so a priori one could predict accurately that it will be 20 years to AI. As you might imagine, the use of that term in our fund-raising deck for our first fund struck a chord with a number of our potential investors, who worried that we would back insufferable founders. The UK Biobank has produced an amazing amount of research for a large group, but is the exception that proves the rule: their openness to researchers is (sadly) extraordinarily unusual. Look after a pet. but less For example, even if online pizza delivery has failed every time its tried, it still seems like a good idea that people will want to order pizza online via their smartphones, so one could try to do a pizza startup 2.5 years later, then 5 years later, then 10 years, then 20 years, or perhaps every time computer costs drop an order of magnitude, or perhaps every time the relevant market doubles in size? And rental bikes., Instacart/Ocado/Uber Eats: Well do Kozmo.com/Webvan again, minus the bankruptcy., PayPal: Everyone elses online payments has failed, so well do it again, with anonymous cryptography! To the extent that VC/startups stampede into particular sectors, this leads to inefficiency of the first timewere so many green energy startups necessary? Can you at least profit from your knowledge of the outcome? All those huge initiatives and? What made them a success was that they happened to give the pinata a whack at the exact moment where some S-curves or events hit the right point. Her example of the pressure derivative demonstrates that something developed for an entirely different industry, the capacitance transducer (quartz pressure gauge) developed for low-vacuum research, can influence how a part of our industry operates.Andrew Lambert, Pillars of the Industry Editor. And Lanier implies that Japan alone spent a lot of money: Jaron Lanier: The components have finally gotten cheap enough that we can start to talk about them as being accessible in the way that everybodys always wantedMoores law is so interesting because its not just the same components getting cheaper, but it really changes the way you do things. With optogenetics, people were trying to control brain cells with light going back to 1971. previous similar startups failed). If you think about the spectrum of things in which you could invest, there are good ideas that look like good ideas. Even the major oil companies give lip service to the claim. Granted that an ICS can be developed, is now the right time to mount the effort? Before coming to Stanford, Ramey and two students at Texas A&M U., Ram Agarwal and Rafi Al-Hussainy, had developed type curves accounting for wellbore storage and skin that enabled well-test analysts to model the early-time transient response using type curves2 (Fig. We wanted the reflections to be as close to the learning experience as possible, both in terms of the timing of the reflections and where the reflection would take place. Konrad Zuse vs von Neumann). Technological developments can be foreseen but the knowledge is largely useless because startups are inherently risky and require optimal timing. I think I had the most fun working in a small group in Anadrill on multilateral-well design, which became the subject of my SPE distinguished lecture.15 After that, I worked with Joe Mach to manage production enhancement for Schlumberger. Psalm 27:13-14 (a succinct yet powerful Bible verse about God's perfect timing for your life!) Indeed, the U. S. Department of Transportation estimates that V2V technology may eliminate or reduce the impact of up to 80 percent of crashes involving unimpaired drivers. Dude, dont you remember CueCat at all? You should maintain a formal tone, but it is acceptable to write in the first person and to use personal pronouns. With few exceptions, established offline firms have failed to catch up to today's Internet leaders. In the U.S., about one-third of the oil is used as a feedstock for a great many materials and products we could scarcely imagine doing without, and the remaining oil is used for transportation. You would have needed no other prophecies, no other predictions, no other details. Is this impossibly rare? Indeed, its inherent in really transformative ideas that they look like bad ideasGoogle, Apple, Facebook and Amazon all did, sometimes several times over. She has since been appointed to the Albert B. Stevens Endowed Chair in Petroleum Engineering at Texas A&M U. Ehlig-Economides has received numerous awards from SPE and was elected to the Natl. There are many ways technology can help teachers see themselves and their practice more clearly. Day to day events can be stressful and sometimes they come out of the blue and catch us off guard. Someone could have built the Rift in mid-to-late 2007 for a few thousand dollars, and they could have built it in mid-2008 for about $673.5$500.02008. Meaning to say the development of technology should have proper timing. IBM and Apple both went nearly bankrupt at points, and Microsofts stock has been flat since 1999 or whenever (translating to huge real losses and opportunity costs to long-term holders of it). We do not know what a unicorn is like. This overall problem falls under the reinforcement learning paradigm, and successful approaches are analogous to Thompson sampling/posterior sampling: even an informed strategy cant reliably beat random exploration which gradually shifts towards successful areas while continuing to take occasional long shots. At Rice U.s Baker Inst., we find the Shell Center for Sustainability. Thiel uses the example of New France/the Louisiana Territory, in which the projections of John Law et al that it (and thus the Mississippi Company) would be as valuable as France itself turned out to be correctjust centuries later, with the benefits redounding to the British colonies. At that time, I had already become a member of SPE in order to take the SPE Journal, where the serious research in the petroleum industry was published. Under such conditions, we could be in the presence of a unicorn and not know with certainty that it is one. Directions: To better appreciate the influence and importance of technology to our daily lives, let us do an activity called "Timing Your Technology". Is there a sustainable development reason to reduce our consumption? The use of lottery grants is one idea which has been proposed, to help break the over-exploitation fostered by peer review; the randomization gives disfavored low-probability proposals (and people) a chance. Its just nobody was paying attention to that. I read a lot of things that might be forgotten because I think that theres a lot of treasure hiding in plain sight. If you concentrate you might be able to identify where some of the late reflections come from. In this edition, we are reminded that rigorous technical work is one of the pillars of our industry. The most informative plan is the most polarizing one.29. The Japanese government in general was funding research, building huge research complexes just to focus on this. In essence, technology has always been with us and will always will be. Huh. Lets start one. Privately, given the skewed returns, diminishing utility, the oversized negative impacts (a bad startup can ruin ones life and drive one to suicide), the limited number of startups any individual can engage in (yielding gamblers ruin)26, and the fact that startups & VC will capture only a minute percentage of the total gains from any success (most of which will turn into consumer surplus/positive externalities), the only startups that make any rational sense, which you wouldnt have to be crazy to try, are the overdetermined ones which anyone can see are a great idea. I have learned the underlying principles and techniques in designing and creating your web page using different web editors. Reverse salients are areas of research and development that are lagging in some obvious way behind the general line of advance. Normal PSRL requires episodes, which dont really have a real-world equivalent, but PSRL can be extended to handle continuous actiona nice example is deterministic schedule posterior sampling reinforcement learning (DS-PRL), which does back off in periodically stopping, and re-evaluating the optimal strategy based on accumulated evidence, but less & less often, so it does PSRL over increasingly large time windows.. Reindex into what, another doomed firm?). The key to reflection is learning how to take perspective on one's own actions and experiencein other words, to examine that experience rather than just living it"[1], stages, reflective . She recently became Director of the Center for Energy, Environment, and Transportation Innovation in the Crisman Inst. Consider the ill-fated eToys.com or Pets.com: was the investor right to believe that Americans would spend a ton of money online such as for buying toys or dogfood? First, how do you use discoveries from the past more than other scientists do? " Timing your technology " means stop spending your ti me too much on technology but rather focus on some important things in your life . Technology is a subject that you will encounter in the school process starting from elementary till college. In designing and creating your web page using different web editors 100,000th person working on?! The pillars of our industry could be in the first timewere so many green startups! A word about those days meaning to say the development of technology that lead! Even consider quitting portal features so you wont be distracted from using the free search stuff which you could,... 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